Will the dollar stabilize above 100 rubles?
On the international currency market, the dollar is strengthening following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the lack of urgency to lower interest rates. Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. elections has also bolstered the dollar's position due to expectations of renewed trade wars with China.
— Under the current circumstances, the ruble will continue to face pressure. Even the tax period is unlikely to help, as exporters may not rush to sell their foreign currency earnings. For the ruble, the key factor is the balance between supply and demand. There are no fundamental reasons for a strong appreciation of the ruble in the current situation, — noted financial analyst Vladislav Antonov from BitRiver.
The dollar exchange rate above 100 rubles reflects ongoing economic issues. High inflation undermines the purchasing power of the ruble, while the liquidity shortage in banks exacerbates pressure on the national currency. Additionally, the situation is worsened by low oil prices, which reduce foreign currency inflows into the country, critically affecting an economy reliant on energy resource exports. These points were highlighted by Denis Astafyev, founder of the investment company SharesPro.
He pointed out that the global rise of the dollar also contributes to the ruble's weakening. The tight monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve makes the American currency attractive to investors, putting pressure on the currencies of developing countries, including the ruble. To stabilize the exchange rate, improvements in external economic conditions are necessary, including rising oil prices and decreasing inflation, but such changes seem unlikely in the short term under the current conditions.
When will the dollar begin to decline?
The dollar exchange rate has surged sharply. Photo © Freepik / jcomp
The currency market is pricing in the risks of stagflation in the national economy. Against the backdrop of falling oil prices and a not-so-effective tax period for the ruble, the most likely dollar range until the beginning of winter will be 98–100 rubles. There are currently insufficient grounds for a significant strengthening of the Russian currency. This opinion was expressed by Alexander Shneiderman, head of the client support and sales department at "Alfa-Forex."
— In my estimates, without an increase in oil prices and an improvement in the foreign trade balance, the dollar could reach 102 rubles by the end of autumn. However, I find it pointless to set higher targets. The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance can always implement measures to limit the ruble's weakening. But as long as they remain silent and do not intervene, the Russian currency will remain under pressure, — noted Vladislav Antonov.
In his view, the exchange rate will stay at current levels as long as the relevant market conditions persist. Once the balance between supply and demand for currency changes, a correction will begin. Stabilization requires either a rise in oil prices or regulatory intervention.
— The dollar continues to fluctuate in the range of 99–103 rubles, and it is likely that by the end of the year we will see further strengthening. This trend is supported by technical analysis, which indicates a possible reach of 105.9 rubles per dollar by early 2025, — said Oleg Kalmanovich, chief analyst at Neomarkets.