Starting December 1, gasoline prices will change. Learn how the market will be regulated and what the new fuel costs will be.

In December, the fuel market in Russia expects the lifting of the ban on gasoline exports for fuel producers, which was last reinstated in August of this year. Additionally, new mechanisms may be introduced to prevent gray fuel exports to EAEU countries. A meeting between the Ministry of Energy and oil companies is also scheduled for early December, where the volume of winter diesel fuel production for the period until the end of March will be determined. This was reported by Yaroslav Ostrovsky, a specialist at Total Research's Strategic Research Department.

— Unfortunately, it cannot be said that these decisions will collectively stabilize retail prices. Business inflation expectations, including those in the fuel sector, have worsened over the past week. This was triggered by a rapid rise in foreign currencies against the ruble. Over the week, the exchange rate jumped by almost 8%. Such a weakening of the ruble will evidently be reflected in retail prices in a short period, and fuel prices may respond quicker than other commodity positions — within one and a half to two weeks, — explained Yaroslav Ostrovsky.

The situation with gasoline prices appears to be quite complex. The current dynamics indicate serious structural changes. Volatility on the exchange is significantly higher, yet this does not prevent the government from keeping gasoline prices in check domestically. A key issue for the fuel market is the growing imbalance between supply and demand, particularly for high-octane grades. Financial analyst Vladislav Antonov from BitRiver pointed out these issues.

In Moscow, gasoline prices at gas stations have accelerated their growth, adding an average of 25 kopecks per liter over the week. The average price for AI-92 is 54.81 rubles, for AI-95 — 60.70 rubles, and for diesel fuel — 67.59 rubles. If this price growth trend continues, it can be expected that by mid-December, prices at gas stations will increase by 1.4–1.6%. This forecast was made by Yaroslav Ostrovsky.

— I see the main risks for prices in several areas. First, the upcoming increase in excise taxes in 2025 could provoke price increases above inflation rates. Calculations show that the increase could be around 4.2–4.4 rubles per liter, which means retail prices could rise by 6–8%. Second, a complicated situation is developing with the damping payments to oil companies. In October, they amounted to 106.6 billion rubles, which is almost 27% lower than the September level. This could push producers to maneuver with volumes and prices, — noted Vladislav Antonov.

He added that the potential lifting of the export embargo on AI-92 gasoline is an interesting point. This could temporarily stabilize the domestic market but carries risks of redistributing production capacities in favor of more profitable export directions.

By the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, a moderate increase in costs is expected to continue. The behavior of gasoline prices will depend on whether there is enough fuel in the domestic market and if regional distortions occur. This opinion was expressed by Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets.

He believes that prices are unlikely to remain at current levels. Less supply for domestic consumers, more opportunities for earning foreign currency from sales abroad, rising inflation, and a high key rate — all of this will prompt oil companies to raise prices. In December, they are expected to increase by 1–1.5 rubles per liter.